I’m convinced that a small proportion of people fundamentally can’t consider beyond first order consequences. Others can’t consider or imagine beyond second order consequences. One could argue third order relies more on domain knowledge than anything, which could explain why career politicians and bureaucrats genuinely can’t fathom the inevitable downstream effects of an action even if blindly obvious to those with business experience.

It’s the same pattern with discussions of rent control. Despite overwhelming evidence that the third-order consequences make things worse for far more people than the first- and second-order effects help, proponents seem unable to reconcile that “preventing rent from increasing” could possibly make housing less affordable.