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Please, don’t buy the stock. It’s a classic retail investor trap

The issue is that once it's in the S&P500, Russel, Nasdaq100 etc indices - everyone with a pension or tracker fund will be buying it without thinking

Yes. I am severely reducing my exposure to these indices finding alternatives.

My impressions is that US investors also have a special love for the S&P500 and could likely benefit from a non-US bias.


The new thing lately is ETFs that are "Whole-Market minus Microsoft" or "Whole-Market Minus Magnificent Seven". You can achieve similar ends by combining a whole market fund with direct short positions if you're an institutional investor, but it gets a little needy of your attention and your calculator and your fees to maintain those positions as a low-cap retail investor (just buy a put a day or something?).

I am explicitly avoiding these indices until this exploit is fixed. The lack of diversity in SPY and the like is already bad enough without these pump and dump schemes being added to the mix.

Buy alternative ETFs with similar performance and low fees. VIG is one example.


Not great when every other share price collapses as they get sold as funds are rebalanced.

Almost every stock in VIG is in the S&P.


The "almost" portion of your statement is the entire point, and re-balancing isn't going to cause "every other share price to collapse".

From your statement it seems like you're underestimating it's impact.

Their impact would be felt across the whole market by their sheer valuation - even if you tried to exclude them specifically.

So yeah, if eg ai crashed and took Nvidia, meta, goog or MS for the ride... You'd have massive impacts all across the board, even if you specifically tried to exclude them from your index, just because of how gigantic it's share on the economy is.

But this is purely theoretical. It can only be considered an opinion until something actually happens - because the market has never been in a situation like this before - no matter what some people may claim.


Not just that.

If you have a $10B fund which owns things evenly across the nasdaq, and a new company arrives, you have to buy shares in the new company, which means selling existing shares or getting more funding to balance.

So you buy $1B of SpaceX stock at the IPO price, meaning you have to sell 10% or $1B of existing Nasdaq stock, which (when combined with every other fund) lowers the cost of the other stocks.

If I own stock in everything-but-spacex, then I'm seeing the price collapse because everyone else is selling.

Then if spacex stock collapses to half its initial price, your $1B becomes worth $500m, you get margin called, and you have to sell more stock, pushing the other stocks down, and the problem cascades


This is why direct indexing is important. I can simply exclude these tickers. Will it skew it slightly from the index? Sure but I’m ok with that

There is a nice book by Jonathan Haidt about this called The Happiness Hypothesis.

He uses a "Elephant and Rider" psychological metaphor to describe the internal battle between our rational mind (the rider) and our emotional, intuitive drives (the elephant).

We think the rider is in control. But he isn’t!


FWIW creatine is "one of the most studied supplements for muscle and strength".

But at the same time "creatine’s brain benefits aren’t as exciting as social media makes them out to be. The research at this point just doesn’t support the hype".

Source: https://physiqonomics.com/creatine-cognitive-performance/


I think people often overestimate the effects of these things. It absolutely works for muscle growth but it's not like a steroid or something. Similarly there is enough evidence to suggest that it actually does have some small effect on cognition; I remember a study 10 years ago showing that in people who are creatine deficient (vegans) it improved cognition scores. But it's not going to be a huge effect for someone whose not deficient in some way.

It would actually make sense that as you age and eat less you might get creatine deficient so sure. I don't think it's bullshit, but it's not going to be a huge noticeable effect either.

All of this reminds me of people who don't weight lift "because they don't want to get built." They somehow think you lift some weights and boom you're looking like Arnold. No, it doesn't work that way.


Even within London people dislike each other!

Saw many non-Arsenal fans cheering for PSG yesterday.


Some companies use product managers for this purpose. They translate the implicit domain knowledge of those experts into explicit requirements, mostly through interviewing.

So in essence: it got harder because the easier parts have been solved for?

Good stuff!

Is there a reason you change the leaderboard graphs for the third and fourth one?

Also: would be great to have an overview page with a summary over all test, like a total score or similar.


Agreed. I have a doc appointment app, where I like the notifications to be on for reminders etc.

Lately they started sending marketing messages through that channel. Now I’m sure it’s possible to turn off the marketing messages. But I bet most people don’t know and won’t change that. It’s super annoying.


Same for things like Uber.

I do want to know when a car is arriving.

I don't want messages asking if I'm hungry.


Hi whstl,

Are you hungry? Open your Uber Eats app now for 10% off.

/this message sent through PalantirFinder -- from marketing and coupons to ordnance, we deliver everything!


> I’m sure it’s possible to turn off the marketing messages.

Uber may have that functionality, but a surprising number of other apps don't - for example Makro, Tops, and 7/11 Thailand, three very popular Thailand retailers, use notifications for when an order is out for delivery, about to arrive, etc. But they also send constant promotion notifications every day, even with audio alerts enabled.


We must, at some point surely, reach an inflection where even everyday people are sick of this shit and start smashing their phones right?

There has always been "unpluggers" [0] amongst technologists, but the vibes are bad and getting worse. I feel like that is getting more common between "normal" people I know, but maybe outside of my country town bubble its not happening.

I was thinking we're only one or two big influencers away from a cascade, but then the ultra-influencers are never really going to commit because its their livelyhood and saying throw your phone away is self-limiting on the viral aspect.

I guess we're just stuck under the boot.

^0 https://biggaybunny.tumblr.com/post/166787080920/tech-enthus...


> We must, at some point surely, reach an inflection where even everyday people are sick of this shit and start smashing their phones right?

Never underestimate the ignorance of the average person…

I am talking about those people who consume content while ads blink around the content in a all four directions and they don‘t even actively notice.


Most people I know who are bombarded by worthless updates every minute either ignore them but don't bother to disable any or are glued to their phones anyway, so they are beyond help.

I absolutely hate medical marketing. I recently decided to switch dermatology practices over a combination of bad data management, unwelcome marketing for cosmetic dermatology products, and unsolicited SMSs. I never consented to receive marketing or texts (or to lose my data in a data breach, or to be billed for the in person services by practices other than the one from which I received services and ignored unopened as spam because I didn’t recognize the sender, etc…)

But I digress.


And soon, those appointment reminders might quietly be dismissed by your phone without you being any the wiser.

Hotels should start giving 5-star reviews to their guests I suggest!

TBH I can't imagine the trust of letting a guest access their booking computer handling cards and given the admin password for UAC particularly helped their case here ;-;

Fun times. Although I find it hard to blame them tbh.

They’re incentived to do so because apparently investors don’t understand the difference.


Or, investors do understand the difference, but think they're buying low to sell high to "greater fools."

If the market can remain irrational longer than a fundamentals-driven investor can remain solvent, is it irrational to bet on the market remaining irrational?


Fair point. Reminds me of the Warren Buffet quote:

If you've been playing poker for half an hour and you still don't know who the patsy is, you're the patsy.


I have seen both. I have heard some talking on live television about how it is a bubble, but it isn’t popping yet, so keep investing. Everyone seems to just be trying to get theirs while the party is still happening.

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