There is a difference to just noticing and attributing it to and recognizing negative financial outcomes. Right now for most companies they are still adjusting to declining inflation. Their bottom lines are doing quite well because consumer price inflation is much stickier than supply inflation. We are coming off of one of the quickest and largest supply lead inflationary cycles. It may not be immediately apparent for many companies that new expenditures are a drag on profitability.
The real thing to look at is whether or not the future outlook for company AI spend is heading up or down?
People ask for examples because they want to know what other people are doing. Everything you mention here is VERY reasonable. It's exactly the kind of stuff no one is going to be surprised that you are getting good results with the current AI. But none of that is particularly groundbreaking.
I'm not trying to marginalize your or anyone else's usage of AI. The reason people are saying "such as" is to gauge where the value lies. The US GDP is around 30T. Right now there's is something like ~12T reasonably involved in the current AI economy. That's massive company valuations, data center and infrastructure build out a lot of it is underpinning and heavily influencing traditional sectors of the economy that have a real risk of being going down the wrong path.
So the question isn't what can AI do, it can do a lot, even very cheap models can handle most of what you have listed. The real question is what can the cutting edge state of the art models do so much better that is productively value added to justify such a massive economic presence.
That seems really paradoxical and I think it would just burn up compute. The AI really doesn't have any way to know it's getting better without humans telling. As soon as the AI begins to recursively improve based on its own definition of improvement model collapse seems unavoidable.
If humans are able to judge, and if the AI is more capable than a human in every respect, then why can't the AI be the judge of its own performance? Humans judge their own output all the time.
I'm not sure I buy that competition between individuals is a hard requirement but lets assume that to be the case for now. Then how many variants of itself do you suppose an AI could instantiate in parallel given full control of a gigawatt class datacenter?
Humans ultimately judge their output by comparison and competition. When we get to the point an AI is capable of participating on the market directly, it'll no longer make sense to proxy judgement through humans anymore.
Agreed. But also, comparison and competition between individuals is only one of the ways in which improvement happens. Consider for example that it's also possible to build something for personal consumption and iteratively improve on the design without regard for what anyone else thinks of it. Cooking comes to mind.
Right. But even that is shaped directly or indirectly by environment you live in. The way you scratch your own itch looks differently depending on what itch you have. Plus, humans are social animals, we live in groups and constantly judge each other and try to have others judge us favorably.
AI has none of that now - it only gets direct human feedback from those controlling the training (or at a second level, the harness), and that feedback is really in service of the humans at the steering wheels. Sum total of humanity, mixed in the blender, and flavored to make the trainers look good in front of their peers.
Now, if AI could interact directly and propagate that feedback to their training, or otherwise learn on-line, that changes. It's a qualitative jump. The second one is, once there's enough AIs interacting with human economy and society directly, that their influence starts to outweigh ours. At that point, they'll end up evolving their own standards and benchmarks, and then it's us who will be judged by their measure.
(I.e. if you think we have it bad now, with how we're starting to adapt our writing and coding style to make it easier for LLMs, just wait when next-gen models start participating in the economy, and we'll all be forced by the market forces to learn some weird, emergent token-efficient English/Chinese pidgin that AI-run companies prefer their suppliers to use.)
It's the combination, young people are supposed to be doing fun stuff, and the idea was you needed to live in the city to do it. And you went for a less desirable living situation because it was cheap but near the fun stuff which was also cheap. Now the amount of fun stuff in cities is drastically reduced, it costs way more to live and the fun stuff is unreasonably expensive.
Just going off of my personal experience, the same highrise I used to rent is roughly 50% more. 2k to 3k. Two of the entire nightlife districts that were very close are completely gone, torn down and converted to high rise buildings with very boring very expensive ground level retail. The few places that remain are expensive, $12 for a drink is normal, maybe a draft beer is $8. In contrast, I could go out any night and find $2-3 drinks. $5 pitcher of beer, and get a solid meal for under $10. Almost all of the sports leagues at the park next to the highrise are gone. The only festivals that can afford to operate depend on high ticket sales and drawing people from out of town which makes huge annoying crowds.
And I'm not even going back 10 years, this was like 7-8 years ago. If you go back to like 2010 things were even cheaper and more fun.
> and the idea was you needed to live in the city to do it.
Exactly. Humans crave novelty and hate doing what everyone else is doing. That idea was presented because it was still a fairly novel experience to live in the city. Getting to live in the city was seen as something special. Now it is what everyone does, so it isn't novel anymore. You no longer "need to live in the city" because, generally, you are now already there. The novelty is gone. The happy youth have moved on to living the next big thing. Once everyone else starts to recognize what they are doing, general happiness will temporarily increase again... until that new normal loses its novelty and the cycle repeats once more.
It is the tale as old as time. This is ultimately the same reason for why people set out to discover and settle in America in the first place!
Are you implying 30 minutes away by car is a short / good thing? That's adding an hour to anything you want to do. Assuming you work 8 hours and sleep 8 hours that's taking like 15% of your free time just in getting somewhere.
Or you just cook at home more--which isn't really a bad thing. I have tons of places within 10 or 15 minutes but don't really go out to eat much. Of course, if you really want to eat out all the time that's a different thing.
>Buy some old EV batteries wire them up and you can make anything with wheels move. Including really old tractors, pickup trucks, etc. Anything from the largest mining trucks to the smallest lawn mower can already be powered by batteries. And everything in between. With battery cost dropping, there are very few obstacles that prevent adoption left. Mostly import tariffs in the US.
It's not even close to that easy though is it? I've wanted to convert a car to an EV and it seems really complex.
Of course, there is a bit of skill involved and I don't claim to be able to do this. But then, putting together a combustion engine would also require a bit of skill. Lots of parts that need to be fitted together. Hoses, pumps, wires, and a lot of electronics as well with more modern cars.
EVs have less parts. There are some challenges with diagnostics for things like battery management systems. And given the high voltages, it helps if you know what you are doing with electrical systems.
What car? It probably depends on what you want the end result to be. You won't be able to DIY a Porsche Taycan, but basically if you can do an engine swap on an ICE car, you should be able to do a semi-ghetto EV conversion (i.e no fast charging or advanced thermal management, but safe and robust enough to run daily for years). Tons of people are doing it on YouTube.
Prior to the idea of planned obsolescence and vendor lock-in / maintenance revenue once you saturate a market the pivot would be to use that infrastructure and expertise to enter other markets. They could still sell tractors but there's tons of other stuff they could make and sell as well, like maybe much smaller tractors for one.
An Apple car would be crazy expensive to develop and not really a guaranteed sell at all. There's millions of people that are very loyal to Apple of iPhone and wearable but going to an Apple car is a HUGE jump.
They could probably do full development from scratch for under $10 bil if they were frugal and patient, or more if they want to go fast, and farm first product out to a manufacturing house like magna. This is their MO already (they don't want to own a plant).
In the current era, it's probably cheaper to develop a car then to build out sufficient AI datacenters - which is also a negative ROI segment today for AI companies.
Quantum leap CarPlay/Siri could be a big win but, even as an Apple fan in general, have no particular interest in an Apple Car absent things like self-driving that blow everyone else out of the water--which seems a pretty big ask.
The real thing to look at is whether or not the future outlook for company AI spend is heading up or down?
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