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Most of these big companies don’t actually sell your data directly, they monetize it through first party ads. If you have a well-oiled ad machine with strong first party data, selling the data just gives it to competitors, and is overall less valuable than using it for yourself.

I’d assume they’re still building that profile while you use the product, but you won’t see any ads, and can still delete the data from the various points like you’ve mentioned.


I’m not sure if this is what you meant, but at 17k t/s, you start to compete with the speed of network calls. You could approach the point of generating an HTML/js/css page faster than some websites can be returned over the network.

When that happens, they will be able to rewrite reality in real time.

Plenty of places are sub-optimal in organization (or some other aspect)… while still being functional and successful.

Same with writing bad code. We’ve all seen sub-optimal decisions in code or technical artifacts that go on to be successful products or tools. Most people can’t/wont/don’t work at the Pareto-optimal workplace.


ZIRP alone isn’t even the full financial story - there was a time bomb tax change from a 2017 bill that impacted R&D (most software work) and that took effect in 2023.

But it’s fairly visible that big companies (eg Meta) that are spending a lot on AI are actually changing spending on headcount and hiring to maintain margins. It’s not the efficiency of the workers, it’s the maintenance of margins with big new spending.


My first and only layoff was effective 1h before that law went into effect. 1,000s of us were shunted off b/c an entire research arm was canned due to the changing cost of research s/w teams.

I'm poorer but happier now b/c of it. That job was nuts.


I took a decent sized pay cut about 6 years ago to join a small company and build out our own product knowing that I may not get a raise for awhile but got to work on something cool with people I liked and I haven't regreted it for a moment. Looking forward to waking up to do work is a wild feeling.

100%. It doesn’t pay the same kind of bills but it makes life 1000% better.

Agreed. I'm comfortable and occasionally get envious of the salaries others are posting but it's fleeting.

I'm with you. I don't think we talk enough about careerism and how toxic it can be.

I’m kind of doing this right now for the first time as a founding engineer in a very small but tight knit team. On paper, I’m objectively in a less secure position, but holy shit is it nice to enjoy work consistently.

I haven't dreaded going to work in years. I also realized burnout is less about how much time you're putting in and much more about how that time is spent. And when I had micromanaging bosses every hour felt like 4.

> My first and only layoff

Won't be your last.


That tax change got reversed!

Proof? I don’t believe it did.

Edit: BBB? Is it in effect yet, though?


Not an accountant, but I believe that it is. https://www.thomsonreuters.com/en-us/posts/corporates/sectio...

> The One Big Beautiful Bill Act introduces Section 174A, which restores immediate deduction of domestic research and experimental expenditures starting in tax years beginning after December 31, 2024, reversing the controversial five-year amortization requirement that took effect in 2022.



Yes, and it went into effect retroactively for all of 2025.

Yes.

The layoffs are happening all over, not just in USA. Atlassian has cut jobs. Spotify. Wisetech. Xero. It's happening all over. This is not a USA tax policy problem.

What could possibly trigger people to down vote this absolutely neutral, and 100% factual, normal post? Cant the moderators not explain, than down voting is not for things you don't agree with?

While factually correct, the US tax change was a huge driver of global layoffs. And the original comment didn’t just mention US tax policy as a source of layoffs, and the alternative source provided would apply globally.

The tax change impacted US company spend on their overseas businesses, so of course they’d be impacted, and it would indirectly impact overseas supplies of domestic business. Beyond that, it sets a tone and many in business are quick to follow the behaviors of others.


Uh, downvoting is definitely a useful tool to signal that you don’t agree with an opinion or subjective statement.

But yes, downvoting a factual statement makes no sense.


That's just silly. The fact that you disagree with an opinion does not mean that other people should not get the chance to be exposed to it. That's how echo-chambers form.

At the same time, the amount of disagreement an opinion gathers is an extremely important channel of information for determining whether you agree with someone's position. Silencing the disagreement with it gives an outsized benefit to harmful and malicious statements.

That's fine when a disagreement (or downvote) is just a signal on the post, but when it's used as a way to silence an opinion (e.g downvotes will hide it) that's even more harmful and malicious. Especially when the guideline is to downvote posts that are low-quality or don't conform to the rules, not posts you just merely disagree with or are against your belief system. Popularity should not be confused with truth.

The R&D tax credit change actually took effect in 2022, and one of the few good things Trump's BBB did was reverse it

This is true as stated. However, it is important context that the time bomb was originally introduced in Trump's signature Tax Cuts and Jobs Act in his first term. So, yes, Trump's OBBBA fixed it, but Trump's TCJA caused it in the first place, too.

This is a fair criticism and I am not defending the practice. My understanding is that time-bombs like this are very regularly introduced into all sorts of bills, party-agnostic. It's how they can say things like "We saved $X over Y years!" where a lot of the time-bombs go off half-way through the 'Y-years" bit unless renewed.

Please correct if I'm wrong about this. I only know what I read, which is hard to trust anymore.


They’ve been regularly introduced in a party-agnostic way, exclusively by republicans. But yea, “party agnostic”.

You should look up the American rescue plan and reflect on why the government shut down recently.

It only reversed it for within the US, I learned that when the company I worked for (owner was a US company) closed.

Right, you can only deduct R&D expenses that happen inside the U.S.

If you want to do R&D overseas, best to set up an overseas company.


Trump takes credit for fixing problems that he created in the first place.

As opposed to the publicly available Google Trends data? As opposed to running legitimate market research? Wouldn't you rather know the most searched person in your vertical, market, etc?

The data in this example was going to be made public anyways. All the examples of prediction markets are predicated on them becoming public. You not only need the info, you need the info before it becomes public.


> you need the info before it becomes public.

and that's exactly how the Google engineer made money, right? He knew it beforehand, and once it was made public other people did too

Realtime access to internal Google search data may help you predict a lot of things that might be worth money, for example there's an existing market where companies buy usage estimation for competitors products (not though Google). I don't see why so many people are completely sure this information is worthless


> a thing that once set up is just the cost of energy

I don't think we can discount this, frankly. Newer electronics are energy efficient, but older devices are more energy-intensive, and unless configured well, a gaming PC can easily use a few dollars a month in electricity, so now you're approaching subscription territory. A subscription comes with no upfront cost, higher reliability, no wasted space in your home, mobile apps, etc. (and less privacy).


Or you need to have decent tenant protection laws.

In SF, you can’t evict tenants because you sell the house, and you can’t evict tenants with kids during the school year (without a just cause).


If the buyer wants to move in, isn’t that a just cause for eviction? If the new buyer just wants it as a rental, sure, carry on.

"Oh no!!! but this is communism!!!!!"

Said by the same people who asks: "Why the young are not having children?"


These are somewhat valid reasons, but I think most of us have seen the use of pasting AI responses that are simply a laziness of communicating.

If you're trying (1), it's easier to say "I don't know, maybe <available ai> can answer". It doesn't save any time to ask an AI that the other party is equally equipped to ask. It just saves the responder time from being genuinely helpful.

If you're (2), at least explain this (or include the prompt so it's self evident and a teaching moment). Of course, if you're a SME, maybe you also have the knowledge to just answer directly - see 4.

For (3), why reply at all: see 1.

For (4), saying this associates your own authority and knowledge, and is valuable, but the omission of such disclaimer makes it indistinguishable from 1.


We already have laws that limit how much you can give to someone else’s campaign. We’ve already crossed that threshold in terms of “free speech”.

An old law, belonging to a set of laws which have been eroded over the decades such that it's surprising this one hasn't been set aside already. Both Congress and the courts have changed in ways that won't ever let that be passed again, or let it stand if it somehow is snuck into law. That era is over, you will never succeed in bringing it back.

And if you think anything's going to change in November, you're going to be really disappointed.


Passing a law that restricts the amount of my own money that I can spend talking about myself seems especially directly a 1A violation.

Weakest of the many weak arguments.

Let’s do the bog-standard obvious and sane thing and pick a single point in time, once a year and use the value then. Maybe, i don’t know, close of market on the last trading day of the year. At which point it won’t fluctuate again until the new tax year. Then, we can call it “mark to market” because we’re marking the value to the market at a point in time.

Finally, we stop with silly bad faith arguments because fluctuations in stock have been successful taxed for decades. This is how day-traders pay taxes, and it’s not even a little challenging to do.


A friend of mine, a few years ago, had his stock options vest. He didn't sell the stocks. The stocks tanked a few months later. The IRS said he owed income tax on the value of the stocks when they vested.

He owed more tax than his net worth, lost his house, everything, and wound up in a trailer.

He never saw the money he was taxed on.

> bad faith arguments

A person's net worth can have wild gyrations on a daily basis. It's not unusual for a stock to move 10% in a few hours. MSFT dropped something like a third of its value last year. What something is "worth" is an utterly arbitrary notion, and basing taxes on that is inevitably unfair an inequitable. (A lot of effort and handwaving is done by accountants trying to guess at what something is "worth".) Heck, what is your house "worth"? Do you agree with the tax assessor? I once told the assessor that if he believed my house was worth what he assessed it at, I'd sell it to him at a 10% discount and he can flip it for what he thought it was worth. He wouldn't take the deal.

With taxes on income, that is fairly well understood and can be accounted for to the dollar.


So your friend had a large taxable event occur, ignored any advice that such tax event would persist over the tax year, and failed to act at any time to address his tax shortfall. Sounds like he had a shit tax/financial advisor. And to consume all of his net worth etc, the number of options that vested must have been quite large.

Not going to be sympathetic to someone YOLO'ing their compensation/taxes.


He didn't know about that tax rule, which was enacted that year. A lot of people were shattered by it.

I think he must have relayed the tale to you incorrectly. Stock options aren't taxed until you exercise them. Been this way since 1969.

Restricted stock is taxed at vesting, unless you choose to be taxed when they're granted to you. Ditto since 1969.

RSUs are taxed at vesting/settlement as ordinary income. This was pretty much the case since 1969 as well, but fully confirmed in 2009.


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