You might be surprised at how little we know about fusion. We can observe the sun, but the sun is already very hot, millions of degrees, so any unknown fusion reactions would have already happened. Nowadays we have high-powered lasers that can create laboratory-scale fusion reactions.
E. O. Lawrence's 1930 cyclotron could generate protons at roughly a million degrees Celsius. But that's a single proton stream. Good for splitting atoms but not for fusing them. You really don't know what the cross section of a fusion reaction is until you do it. The properties of matter at that temperature are just super weird. If it had turned out that there was, e.g., a carbon-carbon fusion reaction with a lower initiation, that might be enough to "go critical" and kick off more fusions, and propagate around the world. According to estimates, the Chicxulub crater was 1-10,000 degrees C. Not even the same ballpark.
Yeah, that was where I was coming from. I know very few people that stub out their ciggy and then put the butt in the pocket to dispose of later, but I do know a couple. You'll get responses arguing how the filters are degradable now so it's no big deal when in truth it would be much less of a big deal if people just didn't toss them willy nilly.
This was not what I was expecting. The doctors I know are mostly miserable; stuck between the independence but also the burden of running their own practice, or or else working for a giant health system and having no control over their own days. You can see how an LLM might be preferable, especially when managing a chronic, degenerative condition. I have a family member with stage 3 kidney disease who sees a nephrologist, and there's nothing you can actually do. No one in their right mind would recommend a kidney transplant, let alone dialysis for someone with moderately impaired kidneys. All you can do is treat the symptoms as they come up and monitor for significant drops in function.
Perhaps we didn't realize how much stability the "two powers" model generated. It caused inevitable arms races as the two powers vied to stay competitive, but there were only two. And the USSR was able to de-escalate on its own. If you have three powers, each of them wants the ability to eliminate not one, but both of the others. Could lead to not just incremental, but polynomial expansion of forces. And de-escalation involves multiple parties coordinating, not just one great power.
If you have a weird phoneme / meaning mapping brain like mine, I would note that he is not the doctor who is known for the "replication crisis". Even though Ioannis means John in Greek. Took me a second to tease that out.
It does make you wonder what would cause a downgrade. The debates over the debt ceiling have certainly brought the U.S. closer to default than I would ever have thought. It's true that the U.S. can never run out of dollars, so in once sense it's not possible for a bondholder not to get paid back. But the political environment, the potential unreliability of previously iron-clad data, economic disruption from tariffs, and behavior from the Federal Reserve, these all seem to make an unlikely event much more likely.
Well, they wouldn't be able to pretend that they are selling from the official store for that inventory. Which I, personally, would be OK with. I've been on eBay for a couple decades, I don't mind ordering from Jack and Jill's Computer Parts as long as they have a reputation I can check. But the current situation where you can order from what looks like the the official storefront but the fulfillment is from a seething mass of "stickerless commingled inventory", with no way to even determine which merchant introduced the counterfeit product? This has been a problem for over 10 years. It's not just the obvious fraud, it's the subtler fakes. I won't buy anything from Amazon where the failure could kill or injure someone. A sun hat? Sure. A charger or food? Not a chance.
Oh, I have a long list of vendors that I'll buy from over Amazon. I buy almost nothing from them. On the rare occasion that I simply can't find something locally or from a reputable vendor, or need it on very short time scale, well, OK. But we dropped Prime, where we were ordering 100+ times a year, and now I pay out of pocket for shipping on a half-dozen orders a year.
It's not clear what LLMs are good at, and there's great interest in finding out. This is made harder by the frenetic pace of development (GPT 2 came out in 2019). Not surprising at all that there's research into how LLMs fail and why.
Even for someone who kinda understands how the models are trained, it's surprising to me that they struggle when the symbols change. One thing computers are traditionally very good at is symbolic logic. Graph bijection. Stuff like that. So it's worrisome when they fail at it. Even in this research model which is much, much smaller than current or even older models.
It was the same thing for us with Qt Commercial licensing. We use only the LGPL version, dynamically link, don't modify the source, and give credit, so we're fully in compliance. To get support we chose to purchase commercial licenses for our small team of developers. Cue a regular series of calls about whether we were sure we were in compliance, etc. To add insult to injury they couldn't even navigate our purchasing process so it was a pain to pay them.
I'll take my chances in the open source world. It's a shame that the companies that created the software aren't getting paid, truly. But don't make it so obnoxious to reward you.
E. O. Lawrence's 1930 cyclotron could generate protons at roughly a million degrees Celsius. But that's a single proton stream. Good for splitting atoms but not for fusing them. You really don't know what the cross section of a fusion reaction is until you do it. The properties of matter at that temperature are just super weird. If it had turned out that there was, e.g., a carbon-carbon fusion reaction with a lower initiation, that might be enough to "go critical" and kick off more fusions, and propagate around the world. According to estimates, the Chicxulub crater was 1-10,000 degrees C. Not even the same ballpark.
https://www2.lbl.gov/abc/wallchart/chapters/11/4.html
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