>than the decision of two apparently major fans to report him to the police after comparing notes on his sexual behaviour

OTOH, it stretches my credulity that the decision lies to the actual fans, with no external motive/pressure on them.

>If the state wanted to railroad Assange, he'd have been in jail a lot quicker on much more straightforward charges

Yes, but character assassination works better even if you have no real charges. It even keeps working after/if one is cleared...