> Anyone can go after you for some sort of supposed license issue
Suppose the software in question is MIT licensed. There are certain requirements, none of them involve users having to decide between releasing their source code or paying fees. Remedying most MIT project license violations usually involves adding a disclosure somewhere in the website.
As a whole, for reasonably large companies it's a lot easier to just pick a non-AGPL project (and make one if it doesn't exist) than to bother with these questions.
That depend on the industry they are in and how much of an monopoly position they got.
Ask what would happen if a email project at google that was estimated to be released this year got delayed an additional year. How much would that impact their revenue and stock values, or even the general market share of gmail?
Then take a an high competition area where multiple companies are in heavy competition. How much of developers focus can you shift away from the main product in order to re-implement code that is already written and could be used today?
Companies in a low competition market that are large enough to already be in a dominant position can just re-implementing AGPL code. Being risk averse might also be an effective strategy, and having higher costs and slow development won't cause any direct harm to the core part of the company. In worst case they will just scrap the project and cut their losses.
In a high competition industries you can not afford that. Every single advantage that can give you an edge will be used unless it goes against the core business model. Unsurprising this is also the places where I personally have seen the least amount of license purity. The most extreme examples are from the game industry which tend to use what ever software they can get their hand on in their games and support systems as long it does not prevent the core business model.
Well, that's simply because most MIT licensed projects don't choose to insist on the copyright infringement damages to which they're entitled with respect to past non-compliance. They could insist on statutory damages (assuming they've registered their copyright), or actual damages/profits of course, without offering the option to remedy past violations.
Most such rights holders simply don't do this as a practical matter given their own goals.
Both license violations can involve a fee. The point is that on a going-forward basis it is sufficient to appropriately disclose use of MIT licensed software. On a going-forward basis, an AGPL violation will require either a release of the entire source tree or a replacement of the AGPL software with an alternative
If we're looking at a going-forward basis as the primary motivator of the different attitude, companies like Google would be more allergic to the regular GPLv2 than they are. The GPLv2 license automatically terminates for a given licensee upon violation, requiring the rights holder to take action to prospectively restore their license if they want to be able to legally distribute the software in the future.
Nobody avoids GPLv2 software due to this clause. Affero's original version of the AGPL (v1) based on the GPLv2 has the same clause, nothing harsher. The currently common version of the AGPL (v3) published directly by GNU/FSF shares the GPLv3's much less harsh termination provision, and indeed companies like Google do sometimes allow use of GPLv3 code. (Those companies like Apple which are opposed to GPLv3 have issues with different provisions, not this one.)
The difference between the MIT license and the AGPL, whether it's unreasonable FUD or reasonable caution by lawyers, is not about the difference in how violators are treated going forward.
By the way, in my reading as a non-lawyer who nevertheless previously attended part of law school including the contract law course, the AGPL doesn't give any specific right to _demand_ the source code of any party any more than the GPL does. It just forces the parties who act outside the license to accept treatment as copyright infringers, as with any other unilateral license, including the damages and injunctions (and sometimes criminal convictions) that can lead to. Companies can pick their poison.
Maaaybe some jurisdictions would analyze this differently as a contract that the company agreed to, with the option to order specific performance of releasing source code. I'm not 100% sure. Again, I'm not a lawyer. I don't view this as likely if the company doesn't somehow indicate to the licensor / court / public that it agrees to the license, beyond the mere fact of acting in a way that would otherwise infringe copyright.
> Anyone can go after you for some sort of supposed license issue
Suppose the software in question is MIT licensed. There are certain requirements, none of them involve users having to decide between releasing their source code or paying fees. Remedying most MIT project license violations usually involves adding a disclosure somewhere in the website.
As a whole, for reasonably large companies it's a lot easier to just pick a non-AGPL project (and make one if it doesn't exist) than to bother with these questions.