I have to agree with this. Intel has floundered, but if a lot of AMD's resurgence has been on the back of TSMC, that's a very tenuous resurgence. We've seen reports that Intel has ordered a lot of 3nm capacity from TSMC (https://optocrypto.com/intel-to-be-tsmcs-1st-customer-for-3n...). We also saw a report about Qualcomm moving their production from Samsung to TSMC for the Snapdragon 8 Gen 1 due to bad yields from Samsung (https://www.techspot.com/news/93520-low-yield-samsung-4nm-pr..., something like this was on the HN front-page in the past few days).
As you note, AMD is supply constrained by what they can get out of TSMC. As I noted, Intel is looking to improve their offering by using TSMC's 3nm process. I'd take this a step further: if Intel can buy up TSMC capacity, they prevent AMD from being able to offer new products on those processes and buy time for Intel to get their fabs in order.
Think about it this way: let's say Intel bribed TSMC to refuse orders from AMD for anything better than 7nm for the next 2-3 years. That would given Intel a lot of time to catch up on their fabrication. Of course, regulators would come down extremely hard on such an anti-competitive move. Instead, Intel knows that TSMC has limited capacity and can legitimately buy some of that capacity for some of their volume over the next few years. They'll put out some great 3nm laptop chips (and maybe some others) that will get them good press and AMD will lose some of its luster. If Intel 4 and Intel 3 are delivered on-time and they're able to use TSMC's 3nm capacity in the interim, that kinda takes the wind out of AMD's sails.
AMD's $16B in revenue compared to Intel's $79B in revenue seems to indicate that AMD is doing a lot less volume than Intel. AMD has great growth, but given that TSMC's capacity might be a bottleneck to that growth and given that Intel seems to have locked down a lot of TSMC's next-gen supply, Intel may have thrown up a huge roadblock to AMD's continued advancement. If Intel 4 is supposed to have 17-46% more transistor density than TSMC 5nm, that will put Intel in a good place in 2023. Intel 3 is supposed to improve efficiency by 18% over Intel 4 and be available in late 2023. So it seems like Intel should catch up by mid/late 2023 on the fab side of things - or at least be close enough. As you noted, Intel doesn't need to clearly surpass AMD, they just need to be competitive since they can out-produce on volume.
AMD has been doing great things. A lot of that is coming from AMD and some is a result of TSMC's fabs (and Intel's fabs languishing by comparison). Intel is looking to close that gap and cut AMD off from their supply in the interim. That's not to say that AMD is doomed or anything. Samsung's foundry exists, TSMC might be able to increase their capacity, and likely other things I haven't thought of. AMD has done great work and I hope they continue to provide strong competition for Intel. It just seems premature to value AMD higher than Intel given some of their limitations - and some of Intel's plans.
Intel will not get more favorable treatment from TSMC than AMD.
- Intel compete with TSMC for foundry services
- Intel try to get government subsidy by attacking TSMC's location, national security concerns etc, which caused TSMC original founder publicly respond with not too kind words.
- Let one customer buy capacity to starve other customers will hurt the basic business model and trust of TSMC as a foundry service, but people keep suggesting this from their imagination.
As you note, AMD is supply constrained by what they can get out of TSMC. As I noted, Intel is looking to improve their offering by using TSMC's 3nm process. I'd take this a step further: if Intel can buy up TSMC capacity, they prevent AMD from being able to offer new products on those processes and buy time for Intel to get their fabs in order.
Think about it this way: let's say Intel bribed TSMC to refuse orders from AMD for anything better than 7nm for the next 2-3 years. That would given Intel a lot of time to catch up on their fabrication. Of course, regulators would come down extremely hard on such an anti-competitive move. Instead, Intel knows that TSMC has limited capacity and can legitimately buy some of that capacity for some of their volume over the next few years. They'll put out some great 3nm laptop chips (and maybe some others) that will get them good press and AMD will lose some of its luster. If Intel 4 and Intel 3 are delivered on-time and they're able to use TSMC's 3nm capacity in the interim, that kinda takes the wind out of AMD's sails.
AMD's $16B in revenue compared to Intel's $79B in revenue seems to indicate that AMD is doing a lot less volume than Intel. AMD has great growth, but given that TSMC's capacity might be a bottleneck to that growth and given that Intel seems to have locked down a lot of TSMC's next-gen supply, Intel may have thrown up a huge roadblock to AMD's continued advancement. If Intel 4 is supposed to have 17-46% more transistor density than TSMC 5nm, that will put Intel in a good place in 2023. Intel 3 is supposed to improve efficiency by 18% over Intel 4 and be available in late 2023. So it seems like Intel should catch up by mid/late 2023 on the fab side of things - or at least be close enough. As you noted, Intel doesn't need to clearly surpass AMD, they just need to be competitive since they can out-produce on volume.
AMD has been doing great things. A lot of that is coming from AMD and some is a result of TSMC's fabs (and Intel's fabs languishing by comparison). Intel is looking to close that gap and cut AMD off from their supply in the interim. That's not to say that AMD is doomed or anything. Samsung's foundry exists, TSMC might be able to increase their capacity, and likely other things I haven't thought of. AMD has done great work and I hope they continue to provide strong competition for Intel. It just seems premature to value AMD higher than Intel given some of their limitations - and some of Intel's plans.