I read the whole thing. "By our estimate". Where is the data? When did it happen and at what rates? What news sources are called "the left"? note that while I dont consider the New York Times to be very "left", that sentence is using the NYT as an example of how much advertising space costs, not that the NYT itself ran $16 million of coverage directly. Also, the images on this page don't seem to load (example https://shorensteincenter.orgwp-content/uploads/2016/06/figu... . host not resolvable here).
Trump ran for president many times before. Why didn't "the media" create his candidacy all those other times? It's because there were many factors working in favor for him this time, that both matched the message he was giving, as well as that he had himself honed his message with the help of foreign agents like Paul Manafort. Of course "the media" was essential to his win, as they would be to any candidate running at a national level, but they didn't just pick him out of thin air and decide to create a candidacy on a whim.
I don't have any data to have this up other than personal observation, but I would wager that CNN (for example) covered trump much more than other candidate simply because he was their best seller. They are a for-profit entertainment company after all.
I'm not necessarily saying that they set out to help him win, but they sure did help him win.
Personally, I'm not too keen on either of your takes. I do remember Trump getting an unusual amount of attention, but it was mainly because the media was mocking the idea of him running. Whether this had the Streisand effect I think is pretty irrelevant.
NYT is "left" as far as an every day citizen is concerned; how left the NYT is I think is a non-sequitur. There's a pattern on the left of unclaiming anything anyone raises about "the left" that's negative. You unclaimed the NYT but I've also heard this done rhetorically with Antifa. People will say they don't exist because there's no one leading it or that "they're not left" in a no-true-Scotsman fashion. I don't think these are helpful or truthful positions to hold.
There are pretty thoughtful takes on what motivated Trump supporters. I'll leave a few for both of you.
tldr: The areas Trump won in were rural areas, those were key to capturing the presidency in a tight race. I lived in one of these areas at the time; not a single Democrat showed up. There were no ads, there was nobody shaking hands, at that point I doubted people would even know what a Democrat or a left-leaning Libertarian were. QAnon and Neo-Nazis certainly did vote for him, but that doesn't make up the huge swing needed for him to win in a race as close as that one.
There's a rather easy fix for this: Send the fucking Democrats. Show up in the primaries in rural areas. Make policy and plans for improving rural areas. Speak directly to these people without telling them that you aim to take their jobs. Show them a trajectory to a better life and I'll bet they'll follow. People forget that many of these areas are historically Democrat or swing states.
Trump ran for president many times before. Why didn't "the media" create his candidacy all those other times? It's because there were many factors working in favor for him this time, that both matched the message he was giving, as well as that he had himself honed his message with the help of foreign agents like Paul Manafort. Of course "the media" was essential to his win, as they would be to any candidate running at a national level, but they didn't just pick him out of thin air and decide to create a candidacy on a whim.