But it is a dilemma. Having both so many more satellites than anyone else (SpaceX semi recently crossed the line to having more than half the satellites in orbit) and by having such a lower risk tolerance, I have to wonder if it is a phase shift for LEO.
It feels like orbital tracking models have, for a while, been fairly static. We know where everything is & where it's headed, & only have to make a couple of updates. Operators jobs are relatively simple in this world.
But as the number of satellites keeps increasing, and as they become more likely to manuver, it feels like we shift into a new phase, where we have to have much more dynamic planning. The article says we are up to 69 avoidances a day, 69 times where every other operators now need to see, am I still ok and for how long?
We're probably not there yet, but this idea of space going from mostly static to dynamic would be a huge shift. Also note, SpaceX has lightweight low cost craft with cheap argon thrusters & semi disposable craft; most operators have bigger heavier craft with more limited & expensive maneuvering capabilities: structurally SpaceX is set up to survive a chaotic system, and others will have more expense/difficulty if orbital planning becomes increasingly dynamic.
What do you mean by this? The article says that NASA makes an avoidance maneuver when the chance of crash is over 1 : 10 000, SpaceX does it when it's over 1 : 100 000.
They seem to mean exactly what you quoted - a lower risk tolerance means they tolerate less risk, meaning they are more cautious. Doing an avoidance maneuver if the risk exceeds 1/100K instead of 1/10K is being more cautious because 1/100K is a lower threshold than 1/10K.
But it is a dilemma. Having both so many more satellites than anyone else (SpaceX semi recently crossed the line to having more than half the satellites in orbit) and by having such a lower risk tolerance, I have to wonder if it is a phase shift for LEO.
It feels like orbital tracking models have, for a while, been fairly static. We know where everything is & where it's headed, & only have to make a couple of updates. Operators jobs are relatively simple in this world.
But as the number of satellites keeps increasing, and as they become more likely to manuver, it feels like we shift into a new phase, where we have to have much more dynamic planning. The article says we are up to 69 avoidances a day, 69 times where every other operators now need to see, am I still ok and for how long?
We're probably not there yet, but this idea of space going from mostly static to dynamic would be a huge shift. Also note, SpaceX has lightweight low cost craft with cheap argon thrusters & semi disposable craft; most operators have bigger heavier craft with more limited & expensive maneuvering capabilities: structurally SpaceX is set up to survive a chaotic system, and others will have more expense/difficulty if orbital planning becomes increasingly dynamic.