Not sure which point you think I'd disagree with here, I guess the core thing I didn't add is that yes, the design space changes over time as computers get more powerful. The original paradigms have proved to be remarkably durable though, hence the note in the piece about many pieces of software being the first ever in their category continue to be the market leader:
> I started thinking about this question, of whether software transitions ever really happen, when I noticed just how common it was for the most popular application in a category to still be the very first application that was ever released in that category, or, they became the market leader so long ago that they might as well have been. The Adobe Creative Cloud is a hotbed of the former: After Effects (1993, Mac), Illustrator (1987, Mac), Photoshop (1990, Mac), Premiere (1991, Mac), and Lightroom (2007, Mac/Windows) are all market leaders that were also first in their category. Microsoft Excel (1987, Mac) and Word (1983, Windows) are examples of the latter, applications that weren’t first but became market leaders so long ago they might as well be (PowerPoint [1987, Mac] is another example of the former).
In the DAW space, ProTools continuing-but-diminishing semi-dominance (at least at a professional level) is rooted in hardware rather than software. When they started, you could do not realtime audio on the CPU, so you got a DSP box with the software. The sort of hardware requirement was invaluable to Digidesign in establishing and locking in their early users, and it really didn't go away until sometimes in the mid-2000s when everybody started noticing that you really could do a remarkably large amount of processing on the CPU itself.
So in this world at least, the longevity of the first mover has more to do with actual and imagined barriers to entry rather than anything especially good about the software itself (and indeed, many of its users used to complain endlessly about the software).
> I started thinking about this question, of whether software transitions ever really happen, when I noticed just how common it was for the most popular application in a category to still be the very first application that was ever released in that category, or, they became the market leader so long ago that they might as well have been. The Adobe Creative Cloud is a hotbed of the former: After Effects (1993, Mac), Illustrator (1987, Mac), Photoshop (1990, Mac), Premiere (1991, Mac), and Lightroom (2007, Mac/Windows) are all market leaders that were also first in their category. Microsoft Excel (1987, Mac) and Word (1983, Windows) are examples of the latter, applications that weren’t first but became market leaders so long ago they might as well be (PowerPoint [1987, Mac] is another example of the former).