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Exit pollsters should be regulated, I agree, if only to avoid an expensive unnecessary investigation.

The media says that Obama and Romney are neck & neck, because that gets more viewers, which sells the advertisements they depend on. (Every presidential election in your lifetime is guaranteed to be declared a "virtual tie" by the media--you'll hear those exact words every 4 years.) Those who understand stats know (with almost certainty) that it'll be a landslide for Obama in the electoral college.



How old are you? Within my lifetime there have been at least six presidential elections that were absolutely not reported as "virtual ties", including the last one.


Found in 5 seconds: "Gallup Daily: Obama-McCain Race Reverts to Virtual Tie"

Found in another 5 seconds: "National Poll Shows Bush, Kerry in Virtual Tie"

I could go on.


That Gallup poll is from June. The race was a virtual tie then. November reporting is a different story.

And Bush/Kerry was also pretty damned close. Not one of the races I was referring to.


That's just the one I found in 5 seconds. This one's from mid-August 2008: "New [LA Times/Bloomberg] poll shows McCain - Obama in virtual tie". And from Sept: "[NBC News/Wall Street Journal] Poll shows Obama and McCain in virtual tie". 3 months later, still a virtual tie! I'm sure I could find a closer one. I didn't say the media would always report that in November.

I went back to 1992 and still found "virtual tie" reports. That's 5 elections in a row.




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