Ask anybody you know that works in Big Tech. They're all pushing hard for Claude Code adoption.

Codex and Gemini CLI seem 1-2 months behind Claude Code. They will catch up. This race will eventually be won by whoever can come up with the cheapest compute.

And that's a dangerous game because the cheaper compute gets, the more likely consumers are to self-host rather than pay a subscription.

Apple could figure out a way to neatly package it into their ecosystem.

Not really. Most people won't self host.

The general public will self-host it's built in to your next phone or laptop straight out of the box or maybe from the App Store.

I agree that that's what it would take, but compute would need to get very cheap for it to be feasible to keep models running locally. That's an awful lot of memory to have just sitting with the model running in it.

True. I was thinking more of power users. Do you think Opus level capabilities will run on your average laptop in a year? I think that's pretty far away if ever.

You can demonstrate "running" the latest open Kimi or GLM model on a top-of-the-line laptop at very low throughput (Kimi at 2 tok/s, which is slow when you account for thinking time) today, courtesy of Flash-MoE with SSD weights offload. That's not Opus-like, it's not an "average" laptop and it's not really usable for non-niche purposes due to the low throughput. But it's impressive in a way, and it does give a nice idea of what might be feasible down the line.