The big problem I see with 3D printer products for the home is that they're very slow. Pushing aside the fact that they won't always be slow (because swinging too early for the market is no better than swinging too late; both result in strikes), this is problem that can be solved at a consumer level by retail, the same way we don't have offset printers and copy machines in our houses but all know where to find a Kinkos.

Bear in mind that most people will never design a 3D model; most people can't even draw, and 3D modeling is harder. But that doesn't matter, of course, because some people can't help but 3D model things and will publish those models to places like Thingiverse.

For instance, when people can print out custom handset chassis and form factors to go with easily swappable electronic internals. Custom input devices. The printable stuff will have to integrate with electronics (or print them anew) as to make it useful in order for it to outgrow the current market of prototyping enthusiasts.

I'd really like though to be able to print a paperback for reading and then tear it down in the machine when I'm done so the material can be fully reused. That's the ebook revolution for me.

Actually, I agree with you. When 3D gets fast to the point of instantaneous and cheap and with fully reusable material, we could have really interesting things. Imagine a 'physical' computer. I issue some command in bash, and a little physical representation of a file pops out from my workstation, and it has built in sensors and input so I can interact back with my workstation by interacting with it. I could have actual printed pseudo-ebook-readers tied up as tabs in my web browser.

There are many things that are impractical to print as a result of how slow 3D printers currently are. But if they were faster, then you can make things as you need it, you can make things where you don't know what you need to pack beforehand, and you can make disposable things on demand.

Same with computers. Many of the software we use regularly now were considered impractical with much slower computers with smaller storage (spam filters, any 3D graphics game). By making them faster, a larger class of things were available to be made more useful.

In the far far future (say 30-40 years), if 3D printers were fast enough with good enough materials, some startup can make a physical dropbox. Never use storage again. Digitize what you want to store, and recycle the object. When you need it again, print it out.

You can do that right now. Buy recycled paper, print a book, read it, and put it into the recycle bin. Just think of paper in the same way you think of ink.

I wouldn't expect consumer adoption soon if I don't yet see, say, small household electronics repair shops using a 3d printer to make spare plastic parts on the spot instead of keeping inventory or long waits for deliveries; or tacky accessory/imitation jewelry stores printing rings/whatever out of metallic substrates with custom sizes and coloring right after order, or stores that sell handheld items (any, from computer mice to firearms) offering to print custom grips to match your hand exactly.

If I'd want to do business with 3d printing, then I'd start with such B2B usecases; or wait for the "right time to swing" at consumer market after this professional market is already full.

By the way, "designing a 3d model" is out of pretty much any of these usecases, the model is either premade by others or generated by specific software from some scans/measurements; and there could be a lot of money in making this software or models for the many businesses that want to sell stuff, not design it. On the other hand, building stuff "on order" is speed sensitive as if you can do it with a waiting time comparable to, say, Starbucks, then you open up much more business models than if customers need to wait an hour for the printing.

My fridge is full of containers, all of which could be differently shaped and sized to better suit me. It is awkward sending people things in the mail that aren't boxy due to standardised mailing containers - again being able to print the perfect one would be great. My garden could do with some innovative shapes such as a structure I can put half above ground, half below and put various plants in various orifices, have water flow and be stored in useful ways that reduce maintenance etc. Child safety seats could match the children exactly as they grow. Edible printing could throw open all sorts of creativity. Furniture could be made to fit spaces exactly. Printed items don't have to be rigid, which opens up possibilities in clothing - non-functional trinkets at first, but later on perfectly form fitting clothing for the occasion.

The real question is what will never be technically possible, with a mild mixture of what will never be economically feasible.

Was the thing that held back personal printers the lack of things to print- at one point, likely. Did a massive influx of 3rd party things to print solve this problem? No. 2D printers were popularized because people had shit they needed to print- text documents to start with and later photos. They made these things themselves. Thingiverse was not the solution for 2d and won't be the solution for 3d.

The only reason Thingiverse gets mentioned is that its damn near impossible for anyone who isn't a specialist in the field to design anything printable. The software is too complex and physical items must be durable.

This say we solved the software problem. We still have the enormous problem that the vast majority of people are incapable of making cogent 3D designs. IE, customization isn't buying you anything other than the ability to emboss your name or make a slightly different iphone case. Really, name one item that the average Joe can customize that isn't kitsch. Here's my list: glasses and jewelery (and only the later with quite a bit of hand holding). You may name a few more, but they problem have integrated circuits or other components that are not printable (lenses, diamonds, etc).

Maybe 3D printers will one day be valuable for printing out replacement parts; perhaps this is true. You'll take your broken whatsit to get 3D scanned and replaced. But of course, this business model may never come into existence due to copyright/patent laws. Even here, you will most likely get this done at your local kinkos because they will do it better, faster, and cheaper.

I don't foresee personal 3d printers becoming a thing, if ever. Perhaps in 20 years I'll look back on this statement in the same way that I think about "why would anyone ever want a personal computer". We'll see.